Water FractalTier 1
at RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.7%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1137
· median 1137
· range 1137–1137
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1240
Q3 1358
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 45.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Neos | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
